Re: World Cup 2006
I´m back from my vacation!
Well, there´s this blog I read religiously that´s written by a portuguese guy who knows a lot about football, here´s his predictions for the next phase :
[QUOTE][B]Holland[/B] will beat [B]Portugal[/B].
The know nothing critics say Portugal has a sucessfull history Vs Holland and that we beat them in Euro 2004, etc, etc, etc. What does that really matter now? Of the team we beat on June 30th 2004 only 4 players remain in the XI (Robben, RVN, Cocu, EVDS) and the coach is different and tactically different from Dick Advocat so what exactly do past victories matter?
On the right of Portugal's defencive axis we have Fernando Meira instead of Jorge Andrade, as our Right-Back we have the ever attacking and defencively cluelless Miguel and on the right side of our defensive midfield we have the rythmnless Costinha. Who do we have on Holland's left attacking side? Arjen Robben, probably the paciest Left-Winger in world football who once he realises Miguel leaves Portugal's right corridor exposed and that Meira isn't really mechanized with either Carvalho and Costinha then AR will have a field day breaking in through Holland's left and testing the lonesome and semi-clueless Meira. If Scolari wants to beat Holland I suggest he switches Figo to the left side and starts with Ronaldo on the right and with Paulo Ferreira as our Right-Back. Ferreira has a lot more defencive culture than Miguel and with ronaldo ahead of him Ferreira will not have to attack as much although with Figo and Valente on the left that flank will exert less pressure but first we have to nullify Robben with Ferreira. Valente should hopefully be enough for the clumsy van Persie and Carvalho and Meira are IMHO enough for RVN.
Van Basten will start with a 4-3-3 with 1 striker RVN flanked by 2 wingers Robben/Persie and 3 DMs in it's midfield Sneijder/Cocu/van Bommel but if he needs to score more or turn the game around he'll sacrifice Van Bommel or Sneijder (WS also provides firepower from deep within midfield) to bring in Rafael Van der Vaart and switch from a balanced 3 contention/3 creative to a 2 contention and 4 creative units (RVN, RVP, AR and RVDV). If he's winning he'll sacrifice van Bommel for Deny Landzat to refresh his ball winning capacity.
Miguel got subbed Vs México after a poor game, let's hope Ferreira starts on the right for Portugal otherwise it looks complicated.
[B]Argentina[/B] will beat [B]México[/B].
México is a good team but Argentina whether underatted or overrated is still on a reasonably good day better in almost every way but in order to win Perkerman will have to bench Tévez and Messi and field Crespo and Saviola and make sure his 3 DMs give proper assistance to Riquelme. Argentina's game is built entirely around Juan Roman Riquelme, if the opposition nullify him then Argentina completely falls appart and it's 2 forwards have to take individual iniciatives once they realise they don't get much help from their playmaker. Vs Holland we saw how easy Holland's Sneijder and Cocu shackled Riquelme leaving Argentina with no choice other than see Tévez and Messi's individual efforts rowing against the tactically stronger Dutchmen.
Vs Holland Argentina fielded what was esssentialy a 4-6-0 system as they had no striker on the pitch, they fielded Messi (a creative left-winger) and Tévez (a 2nd striker) and pressure MUCH more than Holland did yet got no results as Messi and Tévez lacking the physicality to win air-balls coming into the box kept dropping to the flanks and deep in midfield to try to bring the game from Riquelme on up, it didn't work. If Sneidjder and Cocu were enough to render Riquelme helpless then México's 5 man midfield (3-5-2) will be even worse and Messi but Tévez and Sorrin can get past that Full-Backless Méxican defence but Crespo and Saviola will have problems with a 3 CB defence. I suggest Pekerman starts with Crespo and Saviola and if after 60 minutes México maintains the 3 CBs then he brings on Messi to explore the unprotected Méxican flanks. I expect Saviola to have a much easier time with the 3 CBs than the larger Crespo and JS should eventually get the ball in the box breaking in through from Argentina's right side.
[B]Germany[/B] will beat [B]Sweden[/B].
Sweden has never really found itself in this tournament, they can play better than they have so far but not much better unlike Germany who IMHO are playing better than you'd expect from their current crop of talent. Germany is exceeding expectations, Sweden is playing about what is expected for their calibre of present talent.
[B]Ecuador[/B] will upset [B]England[/B].
Ecuador is the most pleasant surprise in the tournament. These South-Americans play not unlike Brasil and even though they aren't rated as highly this creative, free-flowing highly techncist brand of football they play will present nightmare for the robotic, mechanical and extremelly predictable football Erikson plays. if SGE insists on fielding 2 wingers and Lampard and Gerrard in a 4-4-2 and continues to adbdicate of a proper DM for the sake of fitting Lampard and Gerrard and still use 2 strikers instead of a 4-4-1-1 with Gerrard behind the fixed striker then England will continue to play with little elasticity in the middle. There's a 50 yard "string" tying Lampard left ankle to Gerrard's right nakle and the middle of the string is in the midfield line meaning either both go forward 25 yards or Lamps goes up 50 yards and Gerard stays put or vice-versa. Fans claim they neither go all the way or at the same time, no wonder, if one goes then who will pretend he's the team's DM? A 4-4-1-1 with Carragher as DM at Lampard's side and Gerrard as 2nd striker would solve all these problems but Erikson has to abdicate of something and he won't please everybody. If SGE could start with 13 players everybody would be happy but FIFA regulations state only 11 can play for each side so don't expect England to field 2 DMs, Lampard and Gerrard, 2 wingers and 2 strikers because the 4-2-4-2 hasn't been invented yet although I'm sure given the chance Co Adriaanse will soon popularise 2-5-3.
[B]Brasil[/B] will beat [B]Ghana[/B].
Brasil's superior ofensive talent eventually should prevail but never trust these Africans, they are one of the minor surprises of the tournament. They are a mix of the typical African player of high on athleticsim and technique and low on tactical awareness and an interesting mix of a more modern brand of African players. But even if rellying too much on atheticism and will power alone this African midfield is like Felix Trinidad's right cross, you can predict it's coming but you can't stop it anyway. I doubt Appiah and Asamoah will stay in their present clubs after the WC.
[B]Italy[/B] will beat [B]Australia[/B].
Italy on talent are on a different level but never underrate the Aussies, they got heart and unlike Holland the Italians are tactically strong only in defence and somewhat in midfield. Holland plays a 4-3-3 with an "inverted trident" (1 striker 2 wingers) up front while Italy exerts more pressure with a conventional trident (2 strikers and 1 fantasista) which creates more pressure up front but leaves it's midfield exposed to an Attack-to-Defence transition with 4 men compared to Holland with 5[/QUOTE]
Here´s the link : [URL="http://lusofootball.blogspot.com/"]http://lusofootball.blogspot.com/[/URL]