Re: Iran captures British Forces at Gunpoint
[quote=superdave;470813]The news coverage I see and hear is that Ahmadinejad is irrational and can't be allowed a nuclear weapon because he would use it on Israel or worse America. And I'm listening to both Republicans and Democrats.
I believe that invading Iraq made the situation much worse with Iran. Although, Iran should thank us for taking out Saddam & the Sunnis from power. I think we scared Iran to get a nuclear weapon quicker to protect themselves from America. From Iran's perspective, their next door neighbor country, Iraq, just got invaded for allegedly being involved in producing WMDs. Iran which has known ties to terrorism thought they might be the next target of America.
Regarding not taking Ahmadinejad seriously - people that say he's irrational point to comments about him destroying Israel which people do take seriously. In light of the recent events with the British sailors, possibly we should not take him seriously when he makes comments like that. Is this just rhetoric to fire up the hard liners or is it sincere and we should be worried?[/quote]
good question...I would still say:
Ahmadinejad is not irrational; he is power hungry and ruthless. Big difference, still very dangerous to let him get a nuclear weapon. The short answer to your last question, in my opinion, is: yes, a lot of what he says is rhetoric to fire up the hard liners...and yes, we should still be very worried.
I've wondered whether Ahmadinejad is really as religiously zealous and trigger happy with respect to Israel as he portrays himself to be, or whether he simply recognizes the benefits he receives from being [I]perceived[/I] that way right now; he gains popular support from Muslims, feeds hatred and division between the Muslims and non-Muslims (this only works in his favor), and scares the shit out of his enemies.
I'm guessing that a nuclear weapon in his hands would be a continuation (although very scaled up version) of this approach: a way to breed popular support, maintain national/cultural divisions he can exploit, and scare the shit out of everyone with the [I]threat[/I] of a nuclear the weapon - without necessarily ever using it. A nuke in his bag is a great way for him to simply cross the line that America and others draw and say, "so what are you going to do about it?" It totally shifts the balance of power in a way that is favorable for him.
My guess is that Ahmadinejad recognizes all of this very well...he knows the value of perceptions and he knows he doesn't need to fire the nuke to derive a lot of power from it. He also knows the value of pragmatism. Still, there are dozens really, really ugly scenarios for Israel and the West (not to mention his oil-rich neighbors) stemming from a highly ambitious Iran with a few nukes in hand. Ahmadinejad doesn't need to fly off the handle and fire a nuke to be very dangerous; it's enough if he just has one.
So we should take him very seriously. Don't be fooled by his soft-handed approach to the UK troop situation. It served him well to let them go; he would have slit their throats if it had served him better. That's rationality for you.