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Forums / Politics

honest question about tracking bin laden

37 durable postsStarted 2005-01-11Latest 2008-08-01

#8699Post 1 of 372005-01-11

seriously, we know all these videos and tapes are being delivered to al- jazerra TV/radio. why the hell arent we planting a mole there, satellite tracking the visitors upon the drops, hackingn thier networks to track the emails etc. al-jazerra seems to be the only lead we have on finding binladen and his associates. someone is taping these things and delivering them to the station. he is the real reason why the world is in its current state of affairs and the number one hunted man on the planet.... cant we devote the resources to grabbing him. there are large scale microwave scan satellites that should be running 24-7 over the afghan-pakistani mountain ranges. does anyone elsse find this disturbing that we allow our ""positive relationship" with pakistan and modern civil rights to interfere with grabbing this guy? so what if we have to monitor/hack/steal our way through those who sheild him. personally i would do a lot more if i were in charge.

#338830Post 2 of 372005-01-12

Maybe because it's not delived in person?

Mail makes it harder, and if it is posted in a different cite every time, it's getting even harder. Use different chains of people...well...I give up!

#338917Post 3 of 372005-01-13

these people are not stupid. believe it or not, they have one of the most sophisticated networks i've ever seen or heard of (based on the carbonari cell structure, etc.).

you think they would be so stupid as to deliver a tape in person...even to an independent media outlet? as you may know, the US has a massive military base in Qatar (where al-Jazeera is based), and we have a positive relationship with this nation. if there were any way of tracking al-Qa'ida through the satellite news channel, don't you think we would be on that like stank on shit?

as for hunting "UBL" in Waziristan (the area that overlaps Afghanistan and Pakistan where he is suspected to be hiding), you are right. the way we are approaching the situation is counterproductive to say the least. people in the state department, CIA, etc. are only NOW beginning to learn about important things like the Pakhtun (Pashtun) Wali--the code of honor, justice, and revenge that these people live by. this explains both why they are "haboring" Bin Laden, and why they have a duty to protect his whereabouts.

it's not as easy as you think to nab al-Qa'ida, especially the way we are going about it. believe it or not, Musharraf is being very cooperative with the US government's requests--this is something that has made him very unpopular and the victim of many assassination attempts.

there has been what many call "the Great Game" taking place in the sub-continent for quite some time now. the British, the Russians, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and others are all players in this great game. when considering the age of this interplay of nations (and factions within nations), the US is a newcomer with little experience in the region--and it shows.

my suggestion: read Rudyard Kipling's "Kim" and check back with me later :o

that was a bit of a roundabout way of approaching this...if you have more questions, please ask. i'd be happy to discuss this further.

#339004Post 4 of 372005-01-13

Correct me if I'm wrong - but surely the US has the technology and the information to find OBL?For example, I am guessing that if the US wanted to hunt me down,no matter where i hid I would be found within 24 hours.Surely satellites etc can find him?

Or do they not want to find him to keep US interest alive in the 'War on Terrorism'

#339024Post 5 of 372005-01-13

the question that needs to be asked is how will the the army & government benefit from capturing osama? think about it. if he is to be captured than what will continue feeding the fear? how will they keep raising those alarms if there is no threat left? how will they continue re-shaping & violating the rights & freedoms people have based on "security" necessities? all that military & intelligence spending that tax payers are funding won't have any significant cause anymore. you need a scapegoat to fuel the hate & carry the blame, even the bible lists one; [quote]A live goat over whose head Aaron confessed all the sins of the children of Israel on the Day of Atonement. The goat, symbolically bearing their sins, was then sent into the wilderness.[/quote] because without 'the bad' you cannot have 'the good'. so question the issue from their point of view and it's not so dificult to realize why he's isn't already captured.

call me a conspirator but do your own math. US economy is a war driven economy. conflicts will never cease to exist...

my $.02

#339163Post 6 of 372005-01-13

yeah the military industrial complex benefits primarily and directly from this war we are waging.

but don't doubt for a minute that the actions/inactions we have taken in iraq, palestine, and elsewhere have created a thousand new bin ladens.

even if we do capture or kill bin laden, there will be others that take his place. this movement is larger than him now.

#339178Post 7 of 372005-01-13

if indeed they are leading him along b/c of war profitability then fuck the gov't but with bin laden, i highly doubt it. i have to beleive that we simply lost him and he is in a hole.

granted my area of OPS was in intelligence(forensic accounting during the yugoslavian operation) , and im not a satellite pro, but i know if we had a person at all the al-jazerra offices, we could sat track the person who delivered it and follow them back to thte source. if nto the source, then at least along the lines of where the fucking video was made. grab that guy and let pakistan torture the shit outta him, hopefully getting some info. and dont cry about torture. if that's what it takes, do it. these people will only kill more and more people down the road. so if violating his civil rights saves a bunch of lives, let it be. :|

#339182Post 8 of 372005-01-13

[quote=ftc]the question that needs to be asked is how will the the army & government benefit from capturing osama? think about it. if he is to be captured than what will continue feeding the fear? how will they keep raising those alarms if there is no threat left? how will they continue re-shaping & violating the rights & freedoms people have based on "security" necessities? all that military & intelligence spending that tax payers are funding won't have any significant cause anymore. [/quote]

I don't know, I think that's a bit much to swallow. One, I just can't believe that Bush would actually let OBL remain at large if he knew where he was. Second, Bush has already demonstrated an ability, and even a proficiency, at creating fear without any actual imminent threat. He'll find a way, I have no doubt -- it's what he does.

#339187Post 9 of 372005-01-13

as was said earlier. the tapes are most likely mailed in. they are not stupid. they cover their tracks pretty efficiently.

as someone so insightfully stated: "they hate us because we don't know why they hate us."

#339218Post 10 of 372005-01-13

Nice quote there Face...

Well, I think ftc's story partially holds stake, but I just don't think it would be that obvious. He's just one pon in the game, Iran, North-Korea are too. It's more about creating a general idea of danger, the idea that there are multiple societies/persons out for the destruction of Western democracies.

That will keep people approving of investments in defense industry and weapons industry, and keep it alive...Though as long as OBL has not been found, the Bush administration will thankfully use this fact to fuel the fear.

#339632Post 11 of 372005-01-14

i agree, they have to stick up for the best interest of the country & citizens or atleast provide this image so obviosly they can't just shrug off looking for him, but ever since US went into afghanistan it seems to me (with the lack of news from the region) that there isn't really a great effort being put into the mission. the amount of troups there is quite small. it's true that after osama there might be others (probably due to the sad fact that for every innocent person being killed in iraq today, the US is creating new enemies), but i doubt there will be someone as rich & resourcefull as binladen who doesn't mind using his wealth to finance his agenda... it's also true that bush will find a way to create fear & turmoil out of the blue but the monthly dosage of binladen tapes does make it easier on his part, reminding the short-minded citizens that he's still out there and at large.

#339762Post 12 of 372005-01-14

[quote]agree, they have to stick up for the best interest of the country & citizens or atleast provide this image so obviosly they can't just shrug off looking for him, but ever since US went into afghanistan it seems to me (with the lack of news from the region) that there isn't really a great effort being put into the mission. the amount of troups there is quite small. it's true that after osama there might be others (probably due to the sad fact that for every innocent person being killed in iraq today, the US is creating new enemies), but i doubt there will be someone as rich & resourcefull as binladen who doesn't mind using his wealth to finance his agenda... it's also true that bush will find a way to create fear & turmoil out of the blue but the monthly dosage of binladen tapes does make it easier on his part, reminding the short-minded citizens that he's still out there and at large. [/quote]

Actually, there are missions going on in NW Pakistan right now, and have been for weeks. We are just not hearing about it through the mainstream press. Bin laden is really hard to find because he is in heavy populated areas in the mountains that are sympathetic to his cause, and if we enter into the region, there are caves and many exits in which he can disappear immediately. If there is anyone there suspected of being an agent, or that is not sympathetic to their cause, they are shot point blank. They only use carriers that carry written letters, and have drop off locations that are untraceable. They stay away from radios and telephones.

[url]www.americassecretwar.com[/url]

#339780Post 13 of 372005-01-14

^ indeed.

that sums up pretty much what i had said before in a slightly more concise way :)

any sort of radio or telecommunication is avoided at all costs. again i urge you to watch the interview of the two french hostages who were released from captivity in iraq. they said their captors never used cell phones or anything--only to make family-related calls.

#340170Post 14 of 372005-01-15

The book looks pretty interesting, though pretty biased cosmo...

[quote]The strategic successes that are slowly leading the United States to victory[/quote]

A bit dissapointing, I'm still looking for something on this topic that is truly unbiased, or at least doesn't take sides too much.

#340367Post 15 of 372005-01-16

[quote=Yao]The book looks pretty interesting, though pretty biased cosmo...

[quote]The strategic successes that are slowly leading the United States to victory[/quote]

A bit dissapointing, I'm still looking for something on this topic that is truly unbiased, or at least doesn't take sides too much.[/quote]

How is it biased? He says that Bush lied about the wmd. He says in the book that Bush misled regarding the reasons why we went to war.

It's not biased. It's strictly based on intelligence as he runs his own shadow CIA company. [url]www.stratfor.com[/url]

#340553Post 16 of 372005-01-16

The fact that they're already predicting a victory over...what? is a bit suspicious IMO...

It should've stuck to the facts solely and not make any predictions, however I agree that it is maybe one of the least biased books around on the subject, and I'll deffo see if I can get my hands on it here.

#340559Post 17 of 372005-01-16

[quote=Yao]The fact that they're already predicting a victory over...what? is a bit suspicious IMO...

You have to understand the scope of the situation. He predicts the outcome of events that involve war strategy, buisness decisions and the rise and fall of the stock market. He has to be good at what he does, being that his company has high stature.

#345138Post 18 of 372005-01-20

[quote=face]

people in the state department, CIA, etc. are only NOW beginning to learn about important things like the Pakhtun (Pashtun) Wali--the code of honor, justice, and revenge that these people live by. this explains both why they are "haboring" Bin Laden, and why they have a duty to protect his whereabouts.

You'd like to believe that. CO's know , and have known so much about the region and it's values. What comes into play is relaying the information back in time and decyphering every little piece of data.

"the question that needs to be asked is how will the the army & government benefit from capturing osama? think about it. if he is to be captured than what will continue feeding the fear? how will they keep raising those alarms if there is no threat left? how will they continue re-shaping & violating the rights & freedoms people have based on "security" necessities? all that military & intelligence spending that tax payers are funding won't have any significant cause anymore. you need a scapegoat to fuel the hate & carry the blame, even the bible lists one;""

that is exactly what it is....

#345143Post 19 of 372005-01-20

COs dont know shit.

i don't think we could find UBL even if we wanted to, which, as you say, we don't. that's all i'm saying.

but, if you think that if/when we find UBL there won't be 1,000 that rise up just like him, then you are very naive.

#345202Post 20 of 372005-01-20

in the most humorous manner i can say this.....

face, you have the worst outlook on the future i have ever seen. lol, comon man, there is always the possibility of a great future, just GOTTA KEEP HOPE ALIVE. it aint that bad. we just gotta fight for it.

#345207Post 21 of 372005-01-20

what can i say? i'm a cynical, spiteful bastard.

then again, being traumatized in a bloody civil war, being forced to leave your country with nothing but the clothes on your back, and watching 200,000 of your countrymen die will do that to you...

i've been studying the middle east for many years now, and i think that has contributed to my outlook as well...

sorry if i'm being too pessimistic but that's just how i see it!

#345210Post 22 of 372005-01-20

where are you from>

#345211Post 23 of 372005-01-20

I'm still not sure what will happen if they find UBL: new guys like him will definitely stand up, but: will they be equally convincing and have the same financial resources, eg: capacity to continue his work?

For other people to support someone like him, he must be able to make people trust him. They want someone who is really capable of doing 'the job', not just spewing rhetorics and failing at avery terrorist attempt. The guy would need appeal, leadership, charisma and intelligence.

#345233Post 24 of 372005-01-20

you're right about UBL being unique in a way. but also remember that he is no ideologue: he was a rich-boy partier who wanted to rebel against something/someone. ayman al-zawahiri is/was the real brains behind the operation (kindo of like karl rove ;). bin laden, on the other hand, provided much of the funding for operations, and also became a spokesman for the "cause."

as for myself, thesightless, i was born and raised in algeria (to an american mother and an algerian father), and lived there until all hell broke loose in 1993. academics, intellectuals, journalists, and all foreigners were being targeted (both by the islamists and the government, we know suspect), and we were all likely targets as my dad was a university professor and my mother was american. on top of that, my family is known for leading the amazigh (berber) movement in algeria, and that pisses both sides off as well. so here i am...

#346392Post 25 of 372005-01-23

How hard is it to find a six foot tall arab that needs a dialisis machine? :roll:

#346656Post 26 of 372005-01-23

[quote=face]as for myself, thesightless, i was born and raised in algeria (to an american mother and an algerian father), and lived there until all hell broke loose in 1993. academics, intellectuals, journalists, and all foreigners were being targeted (both by the islamists and the government, we know suspect), and we were all likely targets as my dad was a university professor and my mother was american. on top of that, my family is known for leading the amazigh (berber) movement in algeria, and that pisses both sides off as well. so here i am...[/quote]

Well Face...you've been in the shit yourself then. I think it [i]does[/i] alter your view on some things as you mentioned earlier.

But what you're saying is, if UBL would captured or killed, all they needed was another fincancial source. But wit all these governments funding terrorism, wouldn't UBL be just a small part of a bigger picture, and thus not be that important at all after all?

#346664Post 27 of 372005-01-23

the financial question is tricky but i think there would be sufficient funding. however, i think the loosely affiliated cells around the world would have trouble coming together and cooperating without UBL's charismatic (if you will) leadership.

if UBL is killed, he will be seen as a martyr by many of his followers, which will probably aggravate the situation, and leave a void for new players to step up.

the bottom line is that when you hear Dr. Rice and the President talking about capturing or killing 70% of the network's operatives etc., that doesn't mean that they will ever reach 100%. the network feeds on the realizations of our foreign policy, so until something is done about the things that are fueling rage, extremists will have an audience.

as for your UNSC class, it sounds interesting. i've taken an intro to IR course in undergrad, which focused mostly on the UN. it's really an interesting issue where the UN stands in the new world paradigm that we live in...

#346671Post 28 of 372005-01-23

Jep, I hope to have some more insight in that after the course...

I think the question of the charismatic leader you brought in is a valid one, but it leads to the question: what to do with Usama if he's captured?Maybe he could be extradicted and convicted in Saudi-Arabia...but I'm still in doubt as to their stance towards him. Formally, they have broken all connections with the man and condemn his actions, but informally, who knows?

Fact is, if the US tries and convicts him, he will indeed be a martyr. If S-A tries and convicts him, it could mean that the Arab world doesn't have to put up with people like him and takes responsability, or the whole Arab world could turn against them and lebel them as a US lapdog, thereby destroying the political credibility of the country.

If the UN International Court does it, we will be labeled as US lapdogs. I don't think any decision is the right one. But I do think he should get capital punishment: if it were only to eliminate the risk of some extremist fruitcakes bombing the hell out of some place the free him...I'd pity the country/city where he was held captive.

#1054069Post 29 of 372008-07-28