[ms] · Est. May 2002
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With 13 US cities reporting unemployment at 15% and 93 other cities at over 10% and now that GM has gone bankrupt it is safe to say that the deression has begun. Remember GM didn't go bankrupt in 1929 so it is also safe to say that this depression is going to be much worse then the crash of 1929.
Everybody hold on tight for the next couple years and ride this bitch out...
[URL]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobscarreers/15-jobless-in-13-US-cities-Report-/articleshow/4616040.cms[/URL]
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:runningman:
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:Scared:jenks
welcome to reality.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:lol: at you talking to someone about reality.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
well the figures don't lie do they?
Do you have something productive to say or a blatent attack on me with nothing useful to say?
Re: The Depression Has Begun
I have nothing to say in this section anymore, im just stopped in for a quick laugh. no worries.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=runningman;756418]With 13 US cities reporting unemployment at 15% and 93 other cities at over 10% and now that GM has gone bankrupt it is safe to say that the deression has begun.[/quote] Actually, no...it isn't safe to say that at all - not if you care to go by the guidelines that real economists use to determine an economic depression. Economists differ on how to define a depression, but no reputable economist in his/her right mind will look at the data you just cited and declare the economy in depression just based on that.
And most commonly used definitions [I]only work in hindsight[/I] because they rely on consecutive quarter real GDP data to assess severity and length of economic downturn. They also coincide the start of downturn of economic activity (i.e., when a recession began). We've been in recession for like a year now, so it is illogical under any case for you to claim [I]now[/I] that "the depression has [I]begun[/I]".
We [I]may be[/I] in an economic depression, but if we are then (1) it has already begun a long time ago, and (2) we won't really know until after the fact.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
Real Economists didn't see this coming why would I rely on them for future information. They don't have a clue what is coming.
Those numbers are good enough for me and the millions unemployed.
At what % or catastrophe would you say Miro that we are in a depression?? What are you looking for?
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[QUOTE=Miroslav;756487] consecutive quarter real GDP data to assess severity and length of economic downturn. They also coincide the start of downturn of economic activity (i.e., when a recession began). We've been in recession for like a year now, so it is illogical under any case for you to claim [I]now[/I] that "the depression has [I]begun[/I]".
.[/QUOTE]
[img]http://www.anchoredbygrace.com/smileys/mgyes.gif[/img]
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=runningman;756499]Real Economists didn't see this coming why would I rely on them for future information. They don't have a clue what is coming.[/quote] Hey, if you want to make up your own creative definition of an economic depression that suits just your preference...then feel free! :lol: not gonna argue with you about that.
[quote=runningman;756499]Those numbers are good enough for me and the millions unemployed.[/quote] The point wasn't whether things were bad for many people. The point was whether we're in an [I]economic depression[/I]. That ends up being more of an academic debate than a "feels to me like" debate. From a "feels like" perspective, it doesn't really matter what you call it; either way, you're out of work.
[quote=runningman;756499]At what % or catastrophe would you say Miro that we are in a depression?? What are you looking for?[/quote] As I said, even economists vary on the precise definition of a depression vs. a recession. The NBER doesn't even officially make the distinction in its data. That said, basically everything you'll read in a textbook or in publicly available literature will be around one or both of the following:
A few novel economists might also argue for the cause of the downturn as being part of the definition inasmuch as a depression should call for different policy responses than a recession.
A commonly accepted definition (but by no means 100% agreed upon by all economists) is a decline in real GDP of more than 10% or 12+ quarters of real GDP decline. I'd buy that.
But you can't really do it just on the basis of unemployment rate, because productivity is drastically different today than it was in the 1930s; hence, 15% unemployment today does not necessarily have all of the the same economic impacts as 15% unemployment did in the 1930s.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
You are right 15% unemployment today has an even greater impact then of TGD. 15% today--- kids spoiled with XBox's Wii's and luxuries that the average US citizen is not going to see anymore. The division between the rich and the poor is happening at an astounding rate. The poor are getting much poorer and the rich are getting much richer. The middle class is waving the white flag and just begging for this to stop that is why the UAW and CAW workers are agreeing to making only $14/hr now instead of $28/hr.
Also it sounds pretty stupid to me to wait for 4 years after and say "Ya it was a depression near the end of 2009." When it is already 2013. I guess we will have to wait until then to finish the debate.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
its all a conspiracy, just like climate change, it doesnt exist......... :runningman:
Re: The Depression Has Begun
The problem with economic cycles is that you don't even know exactly where you're at in the cycle until later. I've seen different stories saying things are getting better and other stories say that things won't get better for awhile.
Definitely a recession right now. Unemployment is way too high and there are loads of banks failing. GM and Chrysler are finished. I've never seen things this bad. On the good side, the market has been doing well recently, but still way down over the past year.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
the market has been doing ok lately only because the US gov't has been pumping trillions of dollars into circulation causing a new bubble. When that bubble bursts we will see what happens.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:runningman:
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Why the hell are you quoting a source coming out of India about the US's economy? Surely there are plenty of contrarian American scholarly sources?
Re: The Depression Has Begun
what is the difference? Do you actually believe that the US news is credible?
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:runningman:
Re: The Depression Has Begun
lmfao, Jenks and Flo are cracking me up...
I'm with Miro on this one: there's a world of difference between what you feel and what is actually happening, so slamming a term on a situation when you don't have the slightest oversight on what's happening may be a bit premature. Annoyingly it will indeed take a few years before we can assess what it really was that happened, but I'll agree that for now we're pretty deep in shit.
I guess I'm lucky to be living in Holland, which seems to be stricken not quite as badly as many other countries (though I've lost my job as well). I'm quite confident that I'll find something new soon enough, for now I'm still living on what they gave me to fuck off and writing my bachelor thesis. Finally.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
enjoy the break and good luck on the bachelor thesis...
Re: The Depression Has Begun
You may like it, i'm going to make the point that corruption -even though it shouldn't be seen from our Western point of view- is endemic in most African societies and that political reform as a condition of development aid is not going to happen. In casu, development will not happen unless society will change.
That's just part of the problem tho, with the west still subsidizing its agricultural sector and maintaining tariff walls...
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sounds deep.. send it over if you want you know I'm always up for some new corruption reading..:D [email]runningman18@hotmail.com[/email]
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Ahahah, i know man. Will do!
Re: The Depression Has Begun
one way or another we are all in trouble and we have the prototypical mortgage salesman for a president. this mook needs to implement some law and regualtion as opposed to talking about it.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=runningman;756647]the market has been doing ok lately only because the US gov't has been pumping trillions of dollars into circulation causing a new bubble. When that bubble bursts we will see what happens.[/quote]
listen you hypochondriac retard, shut up already. you're an idiot, you have no basis for anything you talk about here other than spewing out reactionary crap you find online. you're literrally a punchline on this website. i assure you, as someone who's actually in the business world, and who has gone to school for nearly a decade for it, you don't have the faintest clue what you are talking about.
and unlike jenks, who just comes in here for a laugh (at YOU), i'd like to come in to this forum and not read endless drivel. fucking hell...
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=thesightless;757569]one way or another we are all in trouble and we have the prototypical mortgage salesman for a president. this mook needs to implement some law and regualtion as opposed to talking about it.[/quote]
Hey I am pretty sure I am coming to NYC next month!! Not sure the exact date yet..
Re: The Depression Has Begun
Unemployment of 15% does not constitute a depression and just because one company that existed during the last depression is not going to survive an economic downturn. GM is failing because of bad management...if you told me BMW or Volkswagen were failing then I would be worried. I think that if anything things have been getting better lately...the oil prices are going up and there is increased demand for construction and those are the two first signs of economic activity.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=runningman;756418]
[URL]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobscarreers/15-jobless-in-13-US-cities-Report-/articleshow/4616040.cms[/URL][/quote]
Any site that has an advert for Scientology is less than credible in my book.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
:runningman:
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=day_for_night;757582]listen you hypochondriac retard, shut up already. you're an idiot, you have no basis for anything you talk about here other than spewing out reactionary crap you find online. you're literrally a punchline on this website. i assure you, as someone who's actually in the business world, and who has gone to school for nearly a decade for it, you don't have the faintest clue what you are talking about.
and unlike jenks, who just comes in here for a laugh (at YOU), i'd like to come in to this forum and not read endless drivel. fucking hell...[/quote]
He actually has a valid point. Where is all this money going? Not to the people who can actually spend it, or to pump back into the economy, but merely to prop up losses and not make them any worse then they are or the like.
Which means when things look better and the sheets start kicking and the money CAN be spent, it's going to flood the market.
Lending is happening, but the real amount is being held onto..you get the money at near 0, wait for rates to go up...it's a bona fide killing.
However, I think we're in this sucker rally...it'll hold for a while, then the next amount of hell will break loose. At which all bets are off.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
wow check out this story.. Two Japanese fellows carrying $134 Billion in US bonds were caught trying to get to Switzerland!!!
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ayy1QKcwcGN0[/URL]
Who the fuck has $134 Billion???
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[quote=runningman;759165]Who the fuck has $134 Billion???[/quote] Apparently, criminals who steal money do.
Re: The Depression Has Begun
[QUOTE=runningman;759165]wow check out this story.. Two Japanese fellows carrying $134 Billion in US bonds were caught trying to get to Switzerland!!!
[URL]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ayy1QKcwcGN0[/URL]
Who the fuck has $134 Billion???[/QUOTE]
That is pretty f*cking wild :shock: