Re: US Automakers are next
[quote=runningman;668729]I can't believe you guys believe that the oil proces went up because of the demand issue. How gullible. The oil prices have gone up because oil makers are sticking us in the ass. That is the ONLY reason why. Refining costs have come down dramatically over the last 30 years. Oil will stay down once Bush is out of office.[/quote]
Um. I know you hate it when I do this, but.....
You're partly right, partly gullible. Oil prices went well higher than demand would suggest. But it wasn't the oil companies that did it, it was primarily the speculators.
Oil companies do not simply set oil prices. If they did, they would have already jacked up the oil price decades ago and never let it drop (like it just recently did). Oil companies can only [I]influence[/I] the price of oil by their level of output. OPEC just recently announced production cuts, and prices didn't turn right back around. Oil prices are defined by a whole multitude of players in global commodities markets, and they reflect much more than just the cost the oil companies incur to pump it out of the ground.
It's looking like speculators were able to drive the prices up. Speclators make money on short-term price movements, and they are not the same as the oil companies - they are mainly all kinds of financial institutions such as hedge funds and mutual funds. Speculators were able to set off this momentum because there [I]was[/I] (and is) real data that indicated that the buffer between supply and demand was eroding - significantly driven by increased demand from China (they've been experiencing double-digit growth for the last few years - what do you think fuels that kind of economic development?). Once the momentum starts going, others pile on to cash in and drive it further - sound familiar? (answer: housing bubble)
Oil prices are coming down right now because there is a massive global recession under way, which will reduce demand for the near term. Certainly, speculators drove oil up higher than underlying demand. But on the flip side, it could now be driven down lower than long-term underlying demand. Like any statistical process, you will see some variation in the short term; the important thing to focus on is the longer-term trend.
One final note: Anytime you hear concerns about refining, it's almost always [I]refining capacity[/I] that is the issue, not refining price. One of the things about low oil prices is that it discourages capital investment into infrastructure - can you guess why?
Anyways, back to the issue at hand..... We unfortunately can't keep expanding the bailout further and further to cover every industry.