These are the states that realclearpolitics.com currently considers toss-ups give the state of polling one month out. RCP also has the electoral count at 264-163, with 111 up for grabs.

The election is not being held today, and plenty can happen in the next 32 days, but if this polling were to hold up, Obama winning any one of those states gives him the presidency, and he only trails in 2 of them -- MO and IN. Even Nevada, which only has 5 votes, would put him into a tie with McCain at 269 -- a tie that would be broken in Obama's favor by the House.

Think Obama can win at least one of those states? I'd say he's in a pretty good spot. McCain needs another game changer, but he's already gone to that well a few times already...

Re: Co, in, mo, oh, nc, va, fl, nv

i hear mccain has folded on michigan. and i've read obama finally seeing a lead in fla, something I thought I'd never type.

I think mccain is gonna comeback and douse our televisions with negative ads, worse than what we've seen in the past.

Re: Co, in, mo, oh, nc, va, fl, nv

The other way to think about it is that McCain has to carry all of these states to win, which I think sounds even more daunting. I've not seen too much McCain advertising here in Missouri lately, but I'm bracing for it now that it's become competitive...

Re: Co, in, mo, oh, nc, va, fl, nv

i think obama's got it in the bag at this point.