Re: how the hell did mccain make this a near dead heat?
One thing to consider is this -- McCain is enjoying a bounce right now, most of which you can probably attribute to Palin, but she might well be at her apex in terms of her ability to bring new voters over the McCain -- from the numbers right now, she's unlikely to contribute to a further rise in McCain's numbers, primarily because we're just not going to see a heck of a lot from her (at least the way things are currently slated to occur).
Politics is all about "what have you done for me lately," and if she's not around, she runs the risk of the McCain/Palin numbers dropping.
Also, her popularity right now is based upon her acceptance speech and what people [B]think [/B]she believes on this issues -- when she actually takes some positions on things, she risks either throwing a wet blanket on the far right that is so fired up right now, or scaring the hell out of moderates.
I'm trying to envision a situation where she has a realistic opportunity to really help McCain pick up more points, and I'm having a tough time doing it.