It is no secret that the Republican party is not exactly elated about the prospect of W having a major presence at the convention. As of right now, he's slated to speak on Monday, which would be the least watched day anyway, but since it's on a holiday, it's likely to be even less watched.
Now, Hurricane Gustav heads towards New Orleans. For many people, Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina is where folks starting saying "Hey, this guy is an idiot," and his downward spiral began. I expect a much more "hands-on" response from Bush this time.
Mark my words, if Gustav's landfall is significant enough to give Bush an excuse to avoid the convention altogether, he will take it. Ironic that it was a hurricane that helped make Bush so unpopular, and it might be a hurricane that gets the GOP out of having to have him speak at the convention.