The future's market is a great indicator for these kinds of events. Take a look at this probabilities graph of the Iowa Electronic Markets for the 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market.
[url=http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA_flash.cfm]Iowa Electronic Futures Market for 2004 US Presidential Election[/url]
Looks like Bush has a good lead, I think I may drop a Benjamin or more for Bush. :Bingo: