Now this, to me, is what we should [I]really[/I] be concerned about, not oil execs or speculators or whether Hillary is really a man.

[B]Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch[/B] [URL]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news[/URL]

[quote]For several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. Now, the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.[/quote]

No one will know if we're in the peak oil phenomenon until we're looking back on it well after the fact...but if this was to be the case, then we are looking at one of the most important challenges of our lifetimes and we will see some very scary times ahead.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

i was thinking about thisthe other day in a great conversation with a friend.

as fooked up as this all is..... sadly, but thankfully as well, i think we are positioned to be the last man standing in the oil wars. the US has positioned itself in one way or another to be the one with the upper hand in the end all be all unless someone else randonly discovers a large oil feild.

holding back our own oil discovery and capitol investment in the process, all the while, relying on others. but their is a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of market positioning and demand/supply issues. once the middle eastern oil either dries up or they cut exports for thier own demand, the worldwide demand will shoot up and the last few remaining oils feilds in the world will essentially be in the hands of american companies and allied countries. outside of venzuela and mid east OPEC, brazil, america, peru, and canada will the be the power brokers of the most important commodity.

we will be forced to drill where we protect (enviornmental issues asisde, speaking solely on the issue of economics), the feilds in the mid west, alaska, perma frost in Yukon, are all, and will be, under american influence and semi- control. tossing aside canadian nationalism, canada relies upon american economics very much and i cannot imagine them refusing to drill if the situation dictates them [I][U]having to out of neccessity[/U][/I].

we eventually have the chance to control the free market supplies in the end all be all. clearly there are other factors that [B]could[/B] come into play, but the majority of them are a stretch (another world war, america vs canada in a war, north and south america losing allied status). add in the fact that america can rapidly deploy a large scale construction of a capitol investment of drilling, refining, and processing, we could quickly become the quote un quote power broker of black gold.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

america vs. canada in a war? :lol: dude, you're lost your damn mind.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

nuclear power for domestic operations, and the necesity to marginalize oil usage in vehicles. We really should be drilling in the United States, but this makes me wonder why we are not....

...my thought is this: if this peak-oil shit is true, then it would behoove us NOT to drill just yet, but wait until down the road when the Middle East is dry. And then corner the market. hmm!

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

the answer isn't to drill for more oil, it's to invest in alternative energy sources.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

the answer is to find a happy medium. brazil is self sufficient on oil and alternatives. they don't depend on anyone for energy and they are very conservative the way they use their resources. we should be taking notes.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

Brazil is also sitting on a shit ton of oil.

Agreed tho, a happy medium is where it's @. It's not just oil consumption for automobiles, it's all the petroleum based products that scare me should we see a decline in production.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606308]america vs. canada in a war? :lol: dude, you're lost your damn mind.[/quote]

we won in 1812. so neener.

and despite all your countires tough talk, no one in their right mind thinks the US can influence us to that extent. you aren't gonna invade, thats just nonsense. iraq is one thing, but invading a peaceful G8 nation is beyond even the US's wildest ambtions. that and we could be a nuclear power anytime we wanted. hell, we also have most the worlds supply of uranium. yay for us.

/end patriotism.

The reason you guys aren't drilling in the states, is there is no oil left to find, with the exception of some exploration in the gulf of mexico. the US hit its own peak oil production in the late 70s and has been on the decline ever since.

The biggest factors influencing where oil will come from in the next 20-30 years are things like enhanced oil recovery, rates of new finds (mainly offshore), and alot of geopolitical stuff that is hard to predict.

The world will be able to produce as much as is needed, at the right price. Fields that were no longer economical at $50 a barrel start looking pretty good when it hits $135 a barrel (as of today). This IEA thing is a bit of scaremongering in my opinion.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

^ did you really just say neener? :D

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606308]america vs. canada in a war? :lol: dude, you're lost your damn mind.[/quote] are you selectively literate?

[QUOTE]clearly there are other factors that [B]could[/B] come into play, but the majority of them are a stretch (another world war, america vs canada in a war, north and south america losing allied status)[/QUOTE]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

jeff, i wasn't implying that the french, er canadians, wouldn't put up a fight or something, eh.

i was saying, we'd never go to war with canada.

but your knee jerk reaction to bring up 1812 and flex your canadian muscle is pretty funny.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=day_for_night;606337]

The reason you guys aren't drilling in the states, is there is no oil left to find, with the exception of some exploration in the gulf of mexico. the US hit its own peak oil production in the late 70s and has been on the decline ever since.[/quote]

actually, that is not true. there are oil feilds in the mid west that are protected under enviornmental concerns that have oil. also, there was a recent discovery of an oil feild due south east of the gulf of mexico. add in alaska and the canadian perma frost oil and the north american nations will end up being the last guys standing.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606346]jeff, i wasn't implying that the french, er canadians, wouldn't put up a fight or something, eh.

i was saying, we'd never go to war with canada.

but your knee jerk reaction to bring up 1812 and flex your canadian muscle is pretty funny.[/quote]

nah it was more to entertain myself. bored at work...

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Garrick;606341]^ did you really just say neener? :D[/quote]

i'm mature like that :p

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

on a serious note...the wikipedia article on world oil reserves is actually very well written

[URL]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves[/URL]

And here is where most of the world's production will come from for the next 20 years...

[IMG]http://pic15.picturetrail.com/VOL621/3508085/19060195/318330171.jpg[/IMG]

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

Whoa, Canada #2???

INVADE!!!

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=thesightless;606347]actually, that is not true. there are oil feilds in the mid west that are protected under enviornmental concerns that have oil. also, there was a recent discovery of an oil feild due south east of the gulf of mexico. add in alaska and the canadian perma frost oil and the north american nations will end up being the last guys standing.[/quote]

there is not that much there that it would make even a dent in the needs of the US. You guys use 20 million barrels of oil a day. Even if you were to drill ANWR and these protected fields in the midwest, it wouldn't make a signifiicant difference.

what you do have alot of is unconventional gas. mainly shale gas and coal bed methane...

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606372]Whoa, Canada #2???

INVADE!!![/quote]

bring it on! :lol:

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

^ why invade when you can have the NORTH AMERICAN UNION

DUN-DUN-DUNNNNNNNNN!

fuck.

could this not be THE motive for the NAU?

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=88Mariner;606377]^ why invade when you can have the NORTH AMERICAN UNION

DUN-DUN-DUNNNNNNNNN!

fuck.

could this not be THE motive for the NAU?[/quote]

we'll pass, thanks :)

more than happy to sell you oil at $135 a barrel though. i work for an oil company, so you can just mail cheques directly to me.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

sure. so long as you're also paying at the pump, too. remember, even though you work for an oil company, you gotsta pay fo' gas too. just like your friends, neighbors, and relatives.

but you know...135 a barrel isn't so bad. it's the goddamn taxes the gov't puts on it. It's 20% a gallon up in chi-town. poor fuckers.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

yes, but my salary is directly linked to oil prices...the more we as a company make, the more i do. most of the people in my city (calgary) are either directly or indirectly paid by the oil industry. we'd much rather have high prices.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

Interesting predicament to live off the misfortune of others isn't it jeff? :lol:

I used to sell oxygen to people with respiratory failure, i know what it's like.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

heh, just being honest. houston is in the same boat as us.

and i can't really sympathize with the average consuer, since studies have shown people haven't decreased their oil consumption at all with the rise in prices. people are still driving around in hummers and monstrous SUVs. the people i feel for are the ones barely scraping by who've seen an increase in transportation costs.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[QUOTE=day_for_night;606460] the people i feel for are the ones barely scraping by who've seen an increase in transportation costs.[/QUOTE]

Seriously. I think about my old secretary that used to drive in 65 miles, one way, to work each day. I wonder what she's doing now, because there's no way that's cost effective nowadays, even if they do pay more in St. Louis than in her po-dunk little town.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606458]Interesting predicament to live off the misfortune of others isn't it jeff? :lol:

I used to sell oxygen to people with respiratory failure, i know what it's like.[/quote]

ohh, and just to put things in perspective. i am no different than someone who invests in an oil company (or any other commoditites company that is making alot of money with the rise in prices). anyone who owns the S&P 500 profits when the price of oil companies' stock goes up. if you have any oil companies in a mutual fund, pension fund, or any other investment vehicle...then you profit when the price of oil goes up.

just food for though ;)

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

Just saw 4.00 dollars for a gallon of gas today and summer has not even really hit yet, could easlity top 5 dollars by summers end. Cannot imagine how much it is in the UK or in Europe,

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=Jenks;606372]Whoa, Canada #2???

INVADE!!![/quote]

Ever hear of the oil sands? We in the US are getting a lot of our oil from there now (northeastern Alberta). They just put in a new 42 inch pipeline near where I live that will carry 500,000 barrels a day from Alberta to near Chicago where it will we refined. Actually, the oil is called bitumen until the sand/sludge is removed from it. They have to combine a solvent with the bitumen just to make it liquid enough to flow in the pipe. When they refine the bitumen they separate the solvent out of it and pipe that all the way back to Alberta in a smaller pipe. I think it's over a thousand mile journey for this bitumen. It only pays to do this when oil is over $30/barrel, which looks rather permanent now.

Check these out [URL="http://oilsandstruth.org/conf"][COLOR=#0000cc]Everyone's Downstream | [B]Oil Sands[/B] Truth: Shut down the Tar [B]Sands[/B][/COLOR][/URL] [URL="http://www.oilsandsdiscovery.com/oil_sands_story/story.html"][COLOR=#551a8b]The [B]Oil Sands[/B] Story[/COLOR][/URL] [URL="http://www.hubbertpeak.com/tarsands/"][COLOR=#0000cc]Tar [B]Sands[/B] • Hubbert Peak of [B]Oil[/B] Production[/COLOR][/URL]

Canada has a lot of oil. Russia is also well-positioned having barely tapped its huge reserves.

For the last 100 years, oil was the solution. For the next 100 years or more, oil is the problem.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=AntonyM;606503]Just saw 4.00 dollars for a gallon of gas today and summer has not even really hit yet, could easlity top 5 dollars by summers end. Cannot imagine how much it is in the UK or in Europe,[/quote]

Just heard yesterday on NPR that in the UK gasoline is over $10/gallon (2.55 to 2.60/litre) and diesel is over $11/gallon.

Everyone thinks this is bad, and it is, but IMHO [B][I]we ain't seen nothing yet[/I][/B].

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=CactusBeats;606508]Actually, the oil is called bitumen until the sand/sludge is removed from it. They have to combine a solvent with the bitumen just to make it liquid enough to flow in the pipe.[/quote]

They don't remove anything from the bitumen (there is no sand in it when they put it in the pipeline). The bitumen [I]itself[/I] is a very thick, long-chain hydrocarbon - literally the viscocity of tar, hence the name. it has a low API gravity. normal brent blend crude is about 30 degrees API, while heavy oil is 8-12 degrees.

[URL]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity[/URL]

The refining of heavy oil breaks down the very long chain hydrocarbons into 'lighter' oil...which is called synthetic crude oil (because it first had to be upgraded to the standard crude you think about when you think 'oil').

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[QUOTE=day_for_night;606498]ohh, and just to put things in perspective. i am no different than someone who invests in an oil company (or any other commoditites company that is making alot of money with the rise in prices). anyone who owns the S&P 500 profits when the price of oil companies' stock goes up. if you have any oil companies in a mutual fund, pension fund, or any other investment vehicle...then you profit when the price of oil goes up.

just food for though ;)[/QUOTE]

ahhh...yeah that's different. i was literally making money off people's last breath. and the worse off they were, the more money i made. but someone had to do it. i think it's safe to say oxygen is a more important commodity than oil. ;) well...hmmmm, that's probably debatable too... interesting topic for another day perhaps.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

ahh! i thought you were being sarcastic about the oxygen thing! :lol: and yes, there are definitely parallels between oxygen and oil. and someone does have to do it, so that someone might as well be me. i find the whole industry facinating.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

[quote=day_for_night;606523]They don't remove anything from the bitumen (there is no sand in it when they put it in the pipeline). The bitumen [I]itself[/I] is a very thick, long-chain hydrocarbon - literally the viscocity of tar, hence the name. it has a low API gravity. normal brent blend crude is about 30 degrees API, while heavy oil is 8-12 degrees.

[URL]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity[/URL]

The refining of heavy oil breaks down the very long chain hydrocarbons into 'lighter' oil...which is called synthetic crude oil (because it first had to be upgraded to the standard crude you think about when you think 'oil').[/quote]

Very interesting stuff - I stand corrected. So, can you can get me a job up there in this lucrative industry? You said that pretty much everyone in Alberta is at least indirectly connected to this relatively new (for Canada) petro-industry.

I have read that up in Fort McMurray if you only make $70,000/year you are the working poor. Guys make $1000/day operating heavy equipment up there. It's literally like 1849 California at Fort McMurray. Don't even go there unless you have a job and a place to live BEFORE you get there, or else you will be living in a tent.

Re: IEA Warns of Oil-Production Crunch

^ | ya thats not an exageration. guys with no college education making 120k a year as a rig pig. welders, electricians, carpenters making 200k a year. but then...you're living in fort mac, which is square in the middle butfuck nowhere and is in the deep freeze 6 months of the year.

if you were a canadian citizen you'd have no problem getting a job...emigrating here though, is not as easy. and yes, you definitely need a job and a place to live. there are guys making six figures there who live in trailers cause there is a two year wait for housing.