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Forums / Politics

Economic Stimulus Package

48 durable postsStarted 2008-01-23Latest 2008-04-28
#50310Post 1 of 48

Looks like those of us in the US are poised to get another tax rebate check, was curious what people thought about it. I'll be honest, I think receiving a check for $1600 is great, and it will certainly be put to good use. I'm not sure that I agree that it's the best way to prevent an impending recession, though.

For me, we've got some work around the house we were needing to do, and that extra cash will help offset that, which is nice. For the people that are really struggling, though, does this really get at the heart of the problem? Maybe it gets bill collectors off their backs for a few months, but what happens after that? Seems like a Band-Aid, sorta the difference between giving a man a fish and teaching him how to fish. That said, I don't know that spending money on bloated government programs designed to spur the economy is the answer, either. Maybe the creation of government jobs that address another specific need, like infrastructure, would be the best answer? I dunno, I really don't.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for tax breaks. Just wondering if this is actually likely to stimulate the economy in a meaningful way. Anyone with some economic expertise care to chime in on this?

#962992Post 2 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

i wonder where they're going to get the money for this.

it's also real nice to give people money right around election time.

that said, i'll take whatever money uncle sam wants to give me, right or wrong.

#963002Post 3 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I'm no economic expert, but as I understand it, the goal of such fiscal stimulus is to stimulate aggregate consumption/demand. The theory is that everyone who gets the "free" cash will spend some portion of it...and the party on the other side of the business deal will spend some portion of what [I]they[/I] get...and so on. Thus, there is a multiplier effect at play in these things where the final result of the stimulus should theoretically be much greater than the original face value given.

My question is: what if people who get the cash, scared by the impending recession, will save a heck of a lot more of it and spend a lot less?

Also, fiscal stimulus is not going to fundamentally address all of the bad loans that banks have on their books and the resulting credit crunch from that. Those banks are still in the process of writing down their assets; many have probably not even [I]fully figured out[/I] just what their final risk exposure is and they won't know for some time...

My guess is that this fiscal stimulus will not stop a recession from occurring, and that the recession will be [I]deep[/I] this time. We're probably already in one anyways.

#963040Post 4 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

well, in the UK they are announcing cuts in the interest rates...(in the UK the interest rate lvl is set by the bank of england) This is a good way of attempting to prevent a recession and stimulate growth.

You're right about the tax break and the multiplier effect - it is too little too late in my opinion. The US economy at this stage requires the government to boost it with money from the national treasury. However this unlikely to happen as most of the national money was spent on weapons and "re-building" Iraq instead of re-building the US.

#963081Post 5 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=Shpira;562623]well, in the UK they are announcing cuts in the interest rates...(in the UK the interest rate lvl is set by the bank of england) This is a good way of attempting to prevent a recession and stimulate growth.

You're right about the tax break and the multiplier effect - it is too little too late in my opinion. The US economy at this stage requires the government to boost it with money from the national treasury. However this unlikely to happen as most of the national money was spent on weapons and "re-building" Iraq instead of re-building the US.[/quote]

Maybe you missed that the US Federal Open Market Committee just did the biggest one-time rate cut in 20 years. That move effectively puts more money out into the US economy, since it ultimately makes it easier for various economic constituents to borrow.

Also keep in mind that it's not like the US government has a finite money supply and they have to decide to spend it in Iraq or over here...they control the money supply and, if they chose, they could print as much money as they want and hand big wads of it out on all the street corners (although that would be stupid)...

#963135Post 6 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Yeah but printing money would just create a bigger problem...i dont know what the answer is. Apparently George Soros outlined what needs to be done by the US govt and said that if radical steps are not taken a crash of the magnitude of that in 29 can be expected...

I mean he might be talking bullshit...haven't had the time to read the interview...friend told me about it.

#963139Post 7 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

There's some debate on who gets the rebate, how much and for some is it really a payment. I know Bush wanted to give a true rebate meaning that you only get money back if you paid a certain amount of taxes in. The Democrats want to do that, but take it a step further and give money to lower income people who pay little or no taxes. Personally, I think the Bush plan makes more sense as I think taxes are too high any way.

The government needs to get the rebate plan going soon as this seems a short term fix and would be a psychological boost to consumer confidence. The rate cuts the Fed did I think would take more time and may take longer to effect the economy.

I don't believe the 1929 hype. Back then, we didn't have many securities laws and the oversight that we do now.

#963204Post 8 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

On CNN right now

[QUOTE]To stimulate the U.S. economy, the government will offer tax rebate checks of $600 per individual and $1,200 per couple, sources said.[/QUOTE]

#963219Post 9 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

There will never be another crash like '29. The market shuts itself down when it reaches a certain point. That's not to say we're not in for some deep fiscal shit, but a crash the magnitude of '29 aint happenin.

#963231Post 10 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

we'll see...I'm not saying that there will be but I'm not saying that there won't either... but i still think that 600$ per person is nothing!!! thats like a cdj 200 per person....lol

#963265Post 11 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

^^ but don't forget the multiplier effect...that's really the only way these things can work.

And if 1929 were to happen again, then you (entire world) are all going down with us!! ;)

#963359Post 12 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

yeah but i have an atomic shelter with stockpiles of food, water and x rated dvd's in the basement.

#963384Post 13 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

the way recessions work is that they are studying 3-month old data... therefore if they say we are going to be in a recession, that is with 3-month old data... therefore we already are in a recession as it is 3-months later than the data they are studying... if that makes sense.

as per the $600.. if i get the check, i will prolly spend half of it and the rest will go towards my CC lol

#963491Post 14 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I want to spend all of it towards my 60" TV :lol:

#963703Post 15 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

lol. Kamal is going to prevent this recession single-handedl if he can help it :D

#963732Post 16 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

seriously wonder how much stupid shit people will buy with these checks.

Some of those ghetto kids will probably be blinging out their car with this check :lol:

Mom with like 5 kids, married...if the kids portion holds true, that's a nice $2700 check (bout a month or 2's pay easy).

Spend it on junk, back to where you were...I love it.

(that's notwithstanding of course if you are in decent shape...then by all means, of course spend the damn thing :CrackUp: )

#967167Post 17 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

That's just it..most of these people who are hurting aren't going to guy out and buy goods/services. They are going to use it to pay bills...utilities, rent, cable. Or they will hold on to it and spend it in a month or two on...bills.

The government is hoping everyone will go out to XYZ retailer and splurge it...not happening.

#967170Post 18 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Thats just it...most of these people who are already hurting are going to take this money and spend it on bills...utlities, cable, etc. The government is hoping everyone will take the money and go to XYZ retailer or Joe Schmoe Services and splurge it.

Not going to happen.

#967540Post 19 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Those rebates are nice, kinda like a thank you after 8 years of being the worst president since w.g. harding. The first rebate he doled out when he first got into office came out of social security and then when the money started running out he talked about doing away with it. When Clinton left we had a surplus now we have like an 8 trillion dollar deficit and a trillion of that went to halliburton plus another trillion they took in oil from Iraq. Besides the assault on my ideology, The sad thing is that other that $3 gallon of gas I haven't been affected all that much by this administrations debacle of a government.

#967621Post 20 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=toasty;562567]Looks like those of us in the US are poised to get another tax rebate check, was curious what people thought about it. I'll be honest, I think receiving a check for $1600 is great, and it will certainly be put to good use. I'm not sure that I agree that it's the best way to prevent an impending recession, though.

For me, we've got some work around the house we were needing to do, and that extra cash will help offset that, which is nice. For the people that are really struggling, though, does this really get at the heart of the problem? Maybe it gets bill collectors off their backs for a few months, but what happens after that? Seems like a Band-Aid, sorta the difference between giving a man a fish and teaching him how to fish. That said, I don't know that spending money on bloated government programs designed to spur the economy is the answer, either. Maybe the creation of government jobs that address another specific need, like infrastructure, would be the best answer? I dunno, I really don't.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for tax breaks. Just wondering if this is actually likely to stimulate the economy in a meaningful way. Anyone with some economic expertise care to chime in on this?[/quote]

when the government spending is out of control, providing the incentive, AND MEANS, for the public to do the same is irresponsible, much less idiotic.

I think a better economic stimulus package is to get rid of about 75% of the bureaucracy in the beltway.

#967651Post 21 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=88Mariner;564441]when the government spending is out of control, providing the incentive, AND MEANS, for the public to do the same is irresponsible, much less idiotic.[/quote]

Well, but the thing is...ultimately, consumption is the [I]only thing[/I] that keeps our living standard going. If we want good economic times, we (consumers, businesses, government) [I]have to spend[/I]; GDP doesn't grow if we all stick our cash under the mattress and live off the land. And so from an economic standpoint, it's actually quite theoretically sound for the policymakers to provide people with incentives and cushions that will marginally prop up their consumption.

Of course, the same key to getting us out of this mess (spending) is also what got us [I]into[/I] it in the first place... Welcome to the modern economic business cycle; it's difficult to break precisely because of this paradoxical nature.

#967653Post 22 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Bitch better have my money!

[IMG]http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a190/jamawalk2/Slapped-by-Glenn-Ford-640.jpg[/IMG]

#967668Post 23 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Take your rebate and donate to MS Drug money for most IMO

#967686Post 24 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=Miroslav;564476]Well, but the thing is...ultimately, consumption is the [I]only thing[/I] that keeps our living standard going. If we want good economic times, we (consumers, businesses, government) [I]have to spend[/I]; GDP doesn't grow if we all stick our cash under the mattress and live off the land. And so from an economic standpoint, it's actually quite theoretically sound for the policymakers to provide people with incentives and cushions that will marginally prop up their consumption.

Of course, the same key to getting us out of this mess (spending) is also what got us [I]into[/I] it in the first place... Welcome to the modern economic business cycle; it's difficult to break precisely because of this paradoxical nature.[/quote]

When the government has gone so far as to damage the economy, the clear response would be to eliminate thier hold on regulating the market.

Tax rebates fail because they do not encourage productivity or wealth creation. To receive a rebate, nobody has to work, save, invest, or create any new wealth. Every dollar that government rebates "inject" into the economy must first be taxed or borrowed [I]out[/I] of the economy. No new spending power is created. It is merely redistributed from one group of people to another.

#967886Post 25 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=88Mariner;564514]When the government has gone so far as to damage the economy, the clear response would be to eliminate thier hold on regulating the market.[/quote]

Well, first of all, I'm not sure what exactly you mean as to how the government has "damaged" the economy...if you're talking about the current mess we're in, I'd say that you should look to the private sector for a lot of that responsibility; the government did not force banks to securitize mortgages (many of them apparently sub-prime) and pass them on to investors as investment grade.

[quote=88Mariner;564514]Tax rebates fail because they do not encourage productivity or wealth creation. To receive a rebate, nobody has to work, save, invest, or create any new wealth. Every dollar that government rebates "inject" into the economy must first be taxed or borrowed [I]out[/I] of the economy. No new spending power is created. It is merely redistributed from one group of people to another.[/quote]

I'm sorry, but I can't resist. I'm not saying this from a mean standpoint, but I have to respectfully disagree with you on the fiscal policy, and I suspect that the majority of economics/business experts from John Maynard Keynes onward would as well. To say that tax rebates have no influence across the boards on productivity, wealth creation, and spending power is patently false (take any corporate finance valuation class, and you'll very quickly learn the impact of taxes and tax shields in your NPV calculations). The point of fiscal policy is [I]not[/I], as you suggest, the "benefit" that supposedly occurred when people got the tax refund for free; the point of fiscal policy is the benefit of [I]what will happen[/I] once people have the cash and put some of the capital to work. In other words, fiscal policy is about [I]augmenting the money supply[/I] in the economy and thereby [I]stimulating[/I] the process of wealth creation.

When you reduce the effective tax variable [I]relative to its past point[/I], you are effectively putting [I]more money into circulation[/I] then would have been the case otherwise (all else being equal). When you change money supply, you're actually potentially changing [I]a lot[/I] from a macroeconomic standpoint; you're impacting future inflation rates, employment levels, and investment/saving/consumption trends. Under typical circumstances, consumers, investors, and businesses will put some of that "new" capital to work; they will invest or spend some portion of it and thereby do all of the things that you say can't be done - create wealth, spur productivity, augment spending. Moreover, when they do this there is a [I]multiplier effect[/I] that comes into play (the dollar you spend is someone else's income; they turn around and spend some of that dollar...) that ultimately makes the impact to be many times the magnitude of the original face value of the tax breaks.

Does this mean that we can do all this and avoid a recession? Not necessarily at all. Fiscal policy is no "silver bullet" to our problems; it has its own drawbacks and limitations contingent on a whole lot of other variables in the current economic environment. My point is simply that, overall, the theory is not as nutty as it sounds and it can have a real impact on us.

#967919Post 26 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

i stopped at Keynes. just to let you know.

#968018Post 27 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I liked what you have to say and all but what was your point, a sound fiscal policy?? How many US's are there? there is the rural US and the Urban Us, and more. I see a lot of signs pointing towards a global recession.

#968033Post 28 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=88Mariner;564781]i stopped at Keynes. just to let you know.[/quote]

Fair enough. Just understand that I didn't come up with all that stuff on my own; you're fundamentally going against core principles of modern economic knowledge that have been studied, tested, and applied worldwide for the better part of a century. I've made my point, so I'll endeavor to stop my comments on this from here on out.

#968061Post 29 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

No, I'm going against an antiqueted and flawed economic theory. And 'flawed' is not my opinion, it was the opinion of Keynes himself. Too bad he died before he could make good on the promise to correct his mistakes. I'll make no further comment, save that I urge you to read Hayek and Friedman. Start with "The Road to Serfdom".

#968080Post 30 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=88Mariner;564945]No, I'm going against an antiqueted and flawed economic theory. And 'flawed' is not my opinion, it was the opinion of Keynes himself. Too bad he died before he could make good on the promise to correct his mistakes. I'll make no further comment, save that I urge you to read Hayek and Friedman. Start with "The Road to Serfdom".[/quote]

I have to comment again because I'm familiar with that book; I actually had to study it out the ass for one of my electives. Look, I'm certainly not arguing here that centrally planned economies are superior to free market economies. I believe that free market forces generally provide for the most efficient allocation of resources. I just think it's rather extreme to conceptually lump macroeconomic management policies into the same camp as totalitarian command economies. Today, even most conservatives do not argue for a [I]completely unregulated[/I] free market. I would argue that there is [I]some[/I] role for the government in setting broad regulatory and macroeconomic policy, even within a fundamentally free market economy.

That said...my original argument wasn't actually that fiscal policy is necessarily "good" or when/how/whether it should be used. My point simply was that changes in money supply can actually have real economic effects (good or bad).

#969889Post 31 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[quote=FM;563472]seriously wonder how much stupid shit people will buy with these checks.

Some of those ghetto kids will probably be blinging out their car with this check :lol: [/quote]

[COLOR=Orange]Exactly... that’s what pisses me off, primarily because I'm being penalized by not receiving a check because I worked to be successful and make well over the threshold of the rebate cutoff. I pay taxes too, in fact the IRS found it suitable to establish higher tax brackets, plus I'm not eligible for many of the tax credits due to my lumber number, so the more you make, the more you pay in tax, but yet no rebate.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=Orange]I am for the rebate, and I’m pretty certain many could use it and would trust out of necessity versus luxury needs, after all that’s why most people are in the state of financial duress, charging for luxuries that are simply beyond their means. I am against handouts to non-tax payers for the exception of seniors and disabled veterans. [/COLOR]

[COLOR=Orange]In closing my rant, if I were to get a rebate, I’d buy a 30yr Treasury Bond for my son.[/COLOR]

#969911Post 32 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

[COLOR=Orange]Oh, one more thing....

If it's a "truly" free rebate, than it's too good to be true, so don't spend it all at once.

According to some sources prior to finalizing the package, it sounds as if the rebate is nothing more than an advance on the 2008 tax year. So, if you get one, you'll be taxed for getting it and you'll most likely receive less of a return, In short, your spending your own money and the government is simply giving you an advance.

[I]"This "stimulus" package is a joke and is going to cause much more harm than good for ordinary Americans. What these politicians aren't highlighting is that these monies are just an advance on next year's tax refunds and that the amounts will be deducted from any refund you would get next year. [B]For some, this could result in owing money next year.[/B] These are lies of omission and I can't believe both sides of the aisle let this go through!" -Forbes[/I][/COLOR]

#969929Post 33 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I remember the day after this was announced the Philly papers had a "what are YOU going to buy" as the front page headline. The picture? A pair of manolo blahniks.

#969957Post 34 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

according to cnn (for what its worth) - this is an advance on a credit for next year - so its fairly shite as it means you dont get as much next year. Unlike Algy, I am well within the limit caps. :)

#986420Post 35 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

Well, apparently they plan to start mailing them out May 2nd.

#988655Post 36 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I heard a lot of conflicting anecdotal information regarding who would get the rebate, and its status as an advance on a tax credit, so I did some digging. Found this article, very helpful:

[url]http://consumerist.com/354606/600-rebates-are-a-tax-credit-advance[/url]

#988692Post 37 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

I received my notification of receipt on last Saturday but it was vague.

#1010568Post 38 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

thats all I have to say about that

[QUOTE]The federal government is sending each and every one of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money will go to China .

If we spend it on gasoline it will go to the Arabs, if we purchase a computer it will go to India, if we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala, if we purchase a good car it will go to Japan, if we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy.

The only way to keep that money here at home is to buy hookers and beer, since these are the only products still produced in the US . Thank you for your help.[/QUOTE]

#1010579Post 39 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

^^^so true.

Mine's going into a worthwhile bit though.

#1010599Post 40 of 48

Re: Economic Stimulus Package

mine is going into savings... guess i'm not much help to the economy. :D

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