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[ms] · Est. May 2002

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Forums / Politics

Man, look at that

3 durable postsStarted 2007-12-12Latest 2007-12-12
#48860Post 1 of 3

It's a flash thing, so I can't imbed it (or at least I don't know how to if I can), but check out the far right side of the the chart found here, which tracks candidate support in the various polls:

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#charts[/url]

10 days ago, Romney had a lead over Huckabee, and he's now down over 10 points. The curve, though, shows such an incredibly steep rise and fall for them. Nothing gradual about that at all. I guess those Romney supporters weren't that firmly in his camp or didn't like his Mormon speech, because that dude is tanking. Considering the lead he once had in Iowa and all that he has invested in the state, if Romney loses, I can't imagine he'll recover.

Far less steep are the curves on the Democratic side in Iowa:

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#charts[/url]

Still, though, they spell big trouble for Hillary, at least in Iowa -- maybe more because they signal a systematic fall for her, rather than a knee jerk reaction to a single event or something. She's in a trick box -- if she, like Guiliani, had never placed any significance on Iowa, she could lose it with impunity. Because she's invested so much time and money in it, though, it looks awful if she loses. If this were happening a few months ago, she could just bag the state and take the wind out of Obama's sails when he wins, but it's probably too late for that now. She's invested in the state, and a loss there could have a snowball effect -- at least that's what I'm hoping... :D

#947022Post 2 of 3

Re: Man, look at that

look how far down Guliani is in New Hapmshire! sheesh.

great site - thanks

#947034Post 3 of 3

Re: Man, look at that

[QUOTE=Huggie Smiles;551127] great site - thanks[/QUOTE]

It really is a great site. For anyone interested in politics, it is one place where you can honestly get totally unbiased reports of what is going on. That's not to say that the articles themselves are not biased, but RCP basically collects all articles on all matter political, regardless of ideology, and sets them out there in their unvarnished form, without commentary -- you'll see the stories from Huffington Post, Raw Story, Drudge and National Review, but the difference is that you'll see [B]all [/B]of them, not just the ones some ideologue thinks you should see. Even the internal RCP articles tend to be fairly objective, and focus on the process over ideology. Also, the fact that they take an average of all recent polls rather than just looking at a single poll makes it easier to identify trends as opposed to looking at snapshots that could be statistical anomalies.

For those that, are interested, here's a link to the primary site:

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/[/url]

Politico isn't bad either. Also fairly balanced, giving equal time to both sides, it seems:

[url]http://www.politico.com/[/url]

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