Hey ya'all just wanted to let you know that I believe we are now entering the second dip of the global recession. Or a new recession...well its actually a "depression" if we are to be technical...but for some reason people don't like that word. This just means it is a consolidation of credit...too much was lent out i.e. banks over leveridged themselves and now our economies are shrinking...because of lack of credit. There have been no negative GDP figures so far but be sure the next 6-9 months will bring some...I have to keep a pulse on economic indicators...and nothing is good...the fact that construction is slowing down globally is a good indicator of things to come...as with every recession its the first thing to suffer along with property prices...I could give you a long justification as to why I am so sure of this but since I am pretty sure it will be worse than the first one (as it involves a real possibility of default on sovereign debt) instead ...I say Best of luck to all of you! try and keep your heads above the water...
[ms] · Est. May 2002
Music madethis place,we just kept itgoing...
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Second Dip
62 durable postsStarted 2011-08-18Latest 2011-10-11
Re: Second Dip
I give it 6 more years... hold on to your hats kids.
Re: Second Dip
? 6 years till what?
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[QUOTE=Shpira;982838]? 6 years till what?[/QUOTE]
6 years until employers are hiring, jobs are created, houses aren't all in foreclosure, etc etc etc etc etc
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Yeah I give it 6. Then some more greedy bastards will most likely stuff it up again. Yes it's a cycle. Economic efficiency at its finest.
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well we did see some growth...the benchmark really is when we reach the previous GDP size inflation adjusted...
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[url]http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11852[/url]
Re: Second Dip
[QUOTE=floridaorange;983640][URL]http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11852[/URL][/QUOTE]
Nicely put by Greg Ip.
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That Farzad guy is so full of shit continuously "The Chinese enjoying the show" - no fucking clue...guy is not too bright...Greg Ip states truths...but pretty obvious... In fact Farzad is soooooooo full of shit...reminds of a politician talking about the economy. I want media that talk facts not god damn bullshit; is that too much to ask for??
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[QUOTE=Shpira;983707]That Farzad guy is so full of shit continuously "The Chinese enjoying the show" - no fucking clue...guy is not too bright...Greg Ip states truths...but pretty obvious... In fact Farzad is soooooooo full of shit...reminds of a politician talking about the economy. I want media that talk facts not god damn bullshit; is that too much to ask for??[/QUOTE]
You should send them a letter educating them on reality.
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I'd rather make money when it hits...
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[QUOTE=floridaorange;983723]You should send them a letter educating them on reality.[/QUOTE]
Dear Mr. Farzad (If that is your real name),
You are a useless piece of economical politicised two-faced puppet.
Love,
Reality.
(Haters gonna hate)
Re: Second Dip
lost decade.
Maybe 2.
See: Japan.
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no...i don't think so...it would be difficult for such a thing to happen a global scale
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my prediction: consolidating within 11k, then more downside to touch back at 9750.
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What are you talking about mate?? The Dow? SPX 500? Sorry I have very little involvement with equities...apart from just using them as indicators... I think the US has been oversold...and China somewhat over bought...but we have not yet seen the bottom... We are now seeing a correction...gold going somewhat down equities worldwide climbing...but this a momentary change. Gold will bottom out at 1650 minimum I think 1680-1690 is more realistic...and continue climbing to reach 2k by end of year and 2200 by feb-march. Meanwhile, we should see certain commodity prices edging higher because of inflation...while things like oil, lumber etc go down. Silver should be going up as well... If EU doesn't push out EU bonds...I can see the ECB getting on QE in a big way...as there is no other way for them to afford to buy Greek, Spanish and Italian debt. This in turn causes more inflation... Safest bet right now IMO is JPY, Gold ETFs and Aussie Bonds...if you are into stocks...i would be buying mining companies and basic food stuff producers...
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[QUOTE=Shpira;984106]Aussie Bonds...if you are into stocks...i would be buying mining companies and basic food stuff producers...[/QUOTE]
[I]You bet your bollocks to a barn dance[/I] it's the best option. Seriously The mining companies here are just raking it in. Only a few days ago BHP (Australia's largest iron ore & mining resources) company recorded the highest ever profit in the history of Australian corporations.
I think with mining would be your best options. But most of the Australian companies are doing well. Returns and great and future expectations look decent as well for the time being.
It's hard thing to forecast. I'm just hoping for that the Americans start a positive recovery hopefully soon.
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[QUOTE=Shpira;984106]What are you talking about mate?? The Dow? SPX 500? Sorry I have very little involvement with equities...apart from just using them as indicators... I think the US has been oversold...and China somewhat over bought...but we have not yet seen the bottom... We are now seeing a correction...gold going somewhat down equities worldwide climbing...but this a momentary change. Gold will bottom out at 1650 minimum I think 1680-1690 is more realistic...and continue climbing to reach 2k by end of year and 2200 by feb-march. Meanwhile, we should see certain commodity prices edging higher because of inflation...while things like oil, lumber etc go down. Silver should be going up as well... If EU doesn't push out EU bonds...I can see the ECB getting on QE in a big way...as there is no other way for them to afford to buy Greek, Spanish and Italian debt. This in turn causes more inflation... Safest bet right now IMO is JPY, Gold ETFs and Aussie Bonds...if you are into stocks...i would be buying mining companies and basic food stuff producers...[/QUOTE]
Sorry about that, should have been more specific.. Was talking about the DJI and S&P. Gold is way overbought, and yes, silver has a high chance of running higher, but this may all be within, like you said, a correction. My belief is that the correction will be brief though, run out of steam and we'll drop again in the coming weeks - months.
Edit: You could be buying a lot of different types of equities atm. Nearly every sector is ready for moves to the upside. The question is will it be sustained or brief?
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[QUOTE=Localizer;984315] Edit: You could be buying a lot of different types of equities atm. Nearly every sector is ready for moves to the upside. The question is will it be sustained or brief?[/QUOTE]
Thats called punting... I don't do that. Thats one of the main reasons I don't want to play with stocks...you never know whats going to happen and you have to really follow and investigate the individual company to know whats going on. Too time consuming for my taste...
I meant a correction in a negative way i.e. going down to a realistic level before continuing the clime. Todays speech by Ben should be interesting...can't see another round of QE being introduced but we've decreased our positions significantly anyway...just in case. We could see equities really rally depending on what he says....thats at 10 am EST btw.
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[video=youtube;1J3w4cS2MvM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J3w4cS2MvM[/video]
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^:lol:
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^ ^ :lol:
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[URL]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf[/URL]
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[url]http://orlando.craigslist.org/jjj/[/url]
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let's blame it on Bush and call it a day...
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^deal
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[QUOTE=CircleUP;985987]let's [url="http://www.mercuryserver.com/forums/djdb.php?id=969"]blame[/url] it on Bush and call it a day...[/QUOTE]
I can live with that. :lol:
Re: Second Dip
[QUOTE=floridaorange;985833][URL]http://orlando.craigslist.org/jjj/[/URL][/QUOTE]
easy when most of the jobs pay less (or barely the same) than collecting UE for 99 weeks ;)
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[url]http://www.dailyjobcuts.com[/url]
lmao at today's job report. Man that Obama speech next week is going to be a riot now!
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Damn Black Jesus didn't save the world in 3 years...fuck him! Tea Party FTW. They have all the answers.
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Just an fyi. A significant portion of the news does not affect the US market. The markets and the players do what they do, and more often than not, US commentators make the news fit what the market is doing.
Let me see if this image turns out alright. [ATTACH=CONFIG]6869[/ATTACH]
Arg, it's too small. But if you check it out, it's just consolidating. If this pattern holds up, then it is likely to hit around 11,100 again. And if this happens, YOU WILL see the news conforming to the markets and not the other way around. Sure, this employment releases was 'big' news, but it also happened to coincide with other indicators signalling that it needed to fall.
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[QUOTE=res0nat0r;986001]Damn Black Jesus didn't save the world in 3 years...fuck him! Tea Party FTW. They have all the answers.[/QUOTE]
:roflmao:
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[QUOTE=Localizer;986446] Sure, this employment releases was 'big' news, but it also happened to coincide with other indicators signalling that it needed to fall.[/QUOTE]
Hence the tittle of this thread...QE3 here we come FYI...i am not really sure technical analysis is what you should be using in time of such volatility...
Re: Second Dip
[QUOTE=Shpira;986549]Hence the tittle of this thread...QE3 here we come FYI...i am not really sure technical analysis is what you should be using in time of such volatility...[/QUOTE]
I don't really play news unless it's forex related (interest rate adjustments, etc...) You can do basic support/resist setups and trendlines to get an idea of what the DJI is doing, even in a volatile time like now. It works for me.
Re: Second Dip
This morning, 19 August, first night of the presidential vacation on Martha's Vineyard,with red ink swamping European banks and Asian equities, Ray Hennessey, director of business news at Fox Business, said the latest Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing index shows we have, in fact, slipped into the dreaded second recessionary dip.
Re: Second Dip
[QUOTE]Canada could be the first economically advanced country to stumble into another recession, the Bank of Nova Scotia says in one of the more stark warnings about the gathering gloom ahead.
Scotiabank economists say Canada could in fact already be in a mild downturn, given that the economy retreated 0.4% in the second quarter and is at risk to come in negative in the third quarter, which ends Sept. 30.
While he is not predicting a recession, “nobody can say with total confidence GDP is going to come in the black in the third quarter,” said Derek Holt, vice-president of economics at Scotia Capital.
Holt notes that job growth, a previous strength, has been flat the past two months.[/QUOTE]
[URL="http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=59605&IdSection=148&cat=148"]http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?Id=59605&IdSection=148&cat=148
[QUOTE]Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing, sending out far more notices of default to borrowers in August than in previous months, well over 200 percent more month-to-month.[/QUOTE]
[URL]http://www.cnbc.com/id/44503938[/URL][/URL]
Re: Second Dip
obama? or cia? :lol:
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lulz america. haven't found a job there since I graduated 4 years ago. find jobs in asia in like 1 month. lulz moving to japan in december i think. us is so fucked
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[QUOTE=tiddles;988330]lulz america. haven't found a job there since I graduated 4 years ago. find jobs in asia in like 1 month. lulz moving to japan in december i think. us is so fucked[/QUOTE]
Nope.
I haven't been unemployed since highschool.
My company just hired 5400 people last quarter. My team is moving into a 24 story new building in a month because the new 5 building complex our company moved into 2 years ago is already not big enough to hold everyone.
Thats not to say the overall downturn of the economy isn't a terrible thing. But bread lines? Nope.